I'd be curious to hear what people think is going to happen in the three-way primary race for County Commissioner. Given that Bill Peach is the sole right-wing nut running, I'd expect him to get around half of the votes, and come out on top. So the question for me becomes who comes in second, and thus advances to the general election? Is it Monohon, or is it Bruch?
Who's been doing the most media? Who's been knocking on your door? Who are people talking about? Who are people laughing about? Let's hear what you have to say. Share your predictions for how this race turns out - the more specific (percentages, anyone?) the better.
Bruch will get most of the remaining votes simply due to the larger population in PA and name-recognition from being on the city council. I've seen her people canvassing west-side neighborhoods and I've gotten a mailer from her and nothing from the other candidates.
ReplyDeleteWhat remaining votes? It's unclear what you're trying to say here. Was part of your comment cut off? Could you please clarify?
DeleteFor my part, I don't see any way that Sissi can hope to come in anything other than third. Maybe a close third, but still last place. Remember, this primary is only in one district, not the whole county. Forks doesn't know Sissi from boo.
knocking at doors? Really? I've NEVER had any candidate ever knock at my door, call me, or actually seem to care. Please, this is Port Angeles.
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, PADA seems to be in a tizzy over the city cutting funding.
I doubt there'd be many doors knocked in in PA for this election. Now, if your door was in Forks...
DeleteHas there ever been a more pointless election - primary or otherwise - here? If Peach wins the general, then we'll have three right-wingers calling the shots at the county. If Monohan or Bruch wins, then we'll still have two right-wingers who can vote together and do whatever they want. So win or lose, the "working dynamic" won't change at all, structurally. That's why Doherty is getting out - he's stymied, powerless.
ReplyDeleteThings might be different if Chapman hadn't been re-elected again, but, given that he was...Nothing is likely to change.
Except to possibly get worse.
Given the make up/leanings of that district, I'd say it will be something like 45%+ for Peach, 30%+ for Monohon, and whatever is left for Bruch. It's not al about Forks, but it's a lot about Forks, and the two guys are from Forks. Not so sure that Sissi is known and/or appreciated in that town.
ReplyDeleteStill, as someone else pointed out, the outcome of this race really doesn't matter much, does it? Two or three Republicans as County Commissioners. They have a majority either way. It might be different if Chapman hadn't been re-elected last time, but...he was.
Whatever Sissi personally spent on her campaign would have been better spent on a moving van and boxes to pack her things in. She's still in her naïve, gung ho, let's save this pace frame of mind. Soon enough, though, she'll wise up and get out of here. It's the only truly intelligent move to make.
ReplyDeletePeach by a landslide.
ReplyDeleteDepending on the turnout at the polls Sissie could have a long-shot at the nomination. However, not many people have been stimulated by this election and many may be so disgusted they just leave the ballot in its envelope and forgo their ability to vote for their own future. That said, Sissie has not been a real leader on the city council. She has not led any big movements. She has not attempted to curtail the extravagant spending by this city council. She has not gone against the grain in any measurable manner. Why she wants to take her "wait and see" approach to the county level is beyond me. She does have a professional campaign going so it may lead to a primary win but then comes the general election and then we will get to finally see if the county is really that right-wing.
ReplyDeleteApparently she hasn't done enough outreach or media to inform you how to spell her name correctly = Sissi.
DeleteApparently she also hasn't done enough to educate the PDN, either, despite the fact that they've been covering her for years now. As of today, there she is, as "Sissy."
DeleteDuh.
Assuming that Sissi scrapes by in the primary, her dreadful voting record on the City Council will play against her in the general election. Who wants another "go along to get along" person in office? I certainly don't, so I won't vote for her.
ReplyDeleteShe's had a lot of "gosh-golly" mush letters printed in the PDN recently, all of which laud her non-existent leadership capabilities. I'd say they were all ghost written by her team.
Bill Peach: 44%
ReplyDeleteBryon Monohon: 30%
Sissi Bruch: 25%
It can't help Bryon that the mills in Forks closed on his watch, even though he had zero control over the issue. Meanwhile, Sissi will be mostly unknown to many voters, and will actively frighten many of the folks who are sad those mills shut down. All of which will serve to benefit Bill Peach, who at this point just has to sit back and hope that a lot of the whacked out Republicans vote in the primary. When he wins it - and it seems like we all agree he will win the primary - then he enters the general election season with some momentum. Or what passes for it in Clallam County, anyway.
Bryon will go back to being mayor. Sissi will go back to doing a lot of not much on the City Council. And any hope of change here will continue to die, slowly die.
So much for your prediction and assessment of the voters in Clallam County. If I was you . . . I'd retire from forecasting. It sure looks like Sissi and Nichols have the momentum in the general election.
DeleteI'm not so sure I was so far off. Sissi had to out raise, out spend and out hustle Bill Peach, just to beat him by, what, less than 100 votes? That's hardly a huge margin, or some sort of insurmountable wave of enthusiasm and momentum. And need I remind you that two of the three sitting Commissioners are Republicans? Which is to say, there's a history of Republicans winning those races.
DeleteAnd, need I remind you of what so many have already said, which is that even if Sissi gets elected, she'll still be a minority (in numerous ways) of one, with the two sitting Commissioners able to do what they please with or without her support.
In other words, even if Sissi wins, progressives in Clallam County will still lose. (Including losing a progressive voice on the PA City Council - one that is likely to be replaced by yet another realtor with an "R" floating over them...)
And let's not forget that the local Democrats have sabotaged their own last two candidates for county commissioner, both of whom were women.
DeleteIs it the 21st century yet in Clallam County? Are we past the wonderous Reagan years yet? I can't tell for sure, because I can't get any local channels on my black and white TV set.
ReplyDeleteNo matter who wins, we'll still have a big bunch of losers as commissioners. Look at Mike Chapman's latest hissy fit. Pathetic.
ReplyDeleteThis county is in decline, and from all available evidence, will continue to decline for the foreseeable future, thanks to the moronic "leadership" we have.
And it's not as simple as left vs. right. After all, it's the stupid Democrats who put Chapman back into office, so he could cozy up to creepy Jim McIntire, and then freeze out Mike Doherty.
We are so screwed.
Wow! Sissi won the primary!
ReplyDeleteCongratulations to her and her campaign team!
She was the only liberal, and the only woman, so....those are natural constituencies. Still, it was a very low turnout, and I don't know how much we can reasonably extrapolate out from this. With off year elections, and especially with all the behind the scenes activity that can take place, we'll just have to wait and see. I wouldn't anoint her County Commissioner just yet.
DeletePer the PDN, the latest count has Sissi ahead by just 16 votes now. That's essentially a tie, folks.
DeletePer Peter Ripley's blog, the County Commissioner race is now down to Sissi Burch and Bill Pearl.
So Sissi won the primary - so what? She still has to A) Win the general, and even more difficult, B) Get the two sitting Republicans in there to stop catering to the right wing fringe.
ReplyDeleteThough A may be possible, good luck with B, Sissi. Pigs will fly.
Just think how much different things could be if the Democrats hadn't sabotaged their own candidate last time out. We could be looking at a racially diverse and mostly female commission. Instead, no matter what, we're still just going to have a couple of old white guys running things. So we'll still be waiting for any actual change to come to Clallam County....
ReplyDeleteNo kidding. And Sissi still has the heavy lifting to do. Sounds like she worked her ass off this primary, while Bill Peach took it fairly easy - and they still essentially tied. We'll see how long the glow of "victory" lasts before the grind of the general campaign sets in.
DeleteAnd as you say...No matter what, we're still going to be being governed by two good ol' boys. That's a fact.
Down with the hegemony of white males!
DeleteChapman's so called "hissy fit" proves one thing for sure..........
ReplyDeleteDoherty has a contagious disease and should be put under quarantine.
It's difficult to tell who's the bigger sissy - Sissi Bruch, or that always-ready-for-a-tantrum crybaby Mike Chapman.
ReplyDeleteWhat's the matter, Mike? Off your meds again? Don't you realize just how much you're embarrassing yourself?
I am perplexed by the lack of commentary on these political candidates. I had hesitated to add one more but I think the commissioner race as well as the DCD is worth investing in (Winborn).
ReplyDeleteThe turnout promises to be low and that is sad for many reasons.
I had talked to Shoona Riggs regarding turnout. She was far more optimistic than I.Please remember that turnout will affect the District 2 Fire District Bond issue. I fear it won’t get there and one heck of a lot of landowners in that area will see some expensive consequences for their non-involvement. I would also push the fact that few people understand the importance of the Charter Review Commission. These people are elected for EIGHT years and basically write the constitution for the county. Please vote.
https://wei.sos.wa.gov/county/clallam/en/Elections/Pages/Online-Voters-Guide.aspx
is the link for the three districts and by clicking on the district you live in you can get the profiles of the candidates running.
BTW keep an eye on Initiative 91 in Oregon. It is the pot initiative that we should have passed but did not. It will be a major development should it pass. My one weedy take on this is here:
http://sweetgeodes.com/senft/?page_id=3289
A more serious report from the Huffington Post is:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/11/01/oregon-legal-weed_n_6084208.html
Back to turnout. I predicted 40-50 percent. I hope I am wrong. BTW Kentucky is looking at a 80 percent turnout. We certainly should be able to hit 60 percent!.